Kwankwaso’s Abba Yusuf : Sociological Viewpoint, by Aliyu Dahiru Aliyu

I followed the submission of many Facebook influencers on Kwankwaso’s stance on Kano PDP gubernatorial aspirant, Abba Kabir Yusuf, with keen interest. I understand that many of those who predict the failure of the aspirant are clouding their submissions with either emotional brouhaha or painting their arguments with little or no knowledge of the Sociology of Politics; reducing their points into mere sentiments without scientific value.

While popularity of candidate in any political exercise is an added advantage, but it is not the foundation stone with which the outcome of any election can be predicted. Sociologists say that in any politics the power of external hands of political influencers is the biggest indicator of success or failure of any candidate. Anybody with powerful political influencers can be successful in any election. Ganduje knows this, that is why he always go with Buhari since the first day he initiated war on his former boss and political influencer, Rabi'u Kwankwaso.

Let me give you an example. In 2003, almost all the people of Kano believed that only Dan Hassan could overthrow Kwankwaso. Nobody thought that less popular and close-to-nobody Ibrahim Shekarau with his poor quality small size posters could approach the gates of Kano government house. But the advent of Buhari and how he raised the hands of Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau changed everything; the power of Buhari and the power SAK.

In 2007, the second coming of now powerful Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau approached by now less powerful Rabi'u Kwankwaso, tried to change the history of Kano politics. Shekarau saw that Kwankwaso was a threat to his political ambitions, so the former gave the later political red card; white paper. This forced the Kwankwaso into giving another no-one-know-him Garban Bichi his ticket to sit on his gubernatorial candidature seat. Remember what happened? Shekarau had to use political magic in fighting this Bichi! Many believe the election was rigged in a similar fashion the election of Osun state is going.

Remember, in 2007 there was no Kwankwasiyya movement and there was widely-held belief that Kwankwaso could not bring any development to Kano state. Kano people, especially the elderly ones, used to see Kwankwaso as irreligious wicked who wants to fight his opponents with all the possible weapons in his arsenal. But the return of Kwankwaso in 2011 changed these widely-held myths with many development projects and merging with his former political foes, Buhari (then) and Shekarau (few months ago). This created what some critics call “Kwankwasiyya cult” with die-hard supporters in every nook and cranny of Kano state.

Back to the Sociology, Kwankwaso is now a greatest force that can shape the outcome of Kano politics. His Kwankwasiyya followers are described as mobile-cult that can follow him to every hell and paradise. He doesn't need a popular candidate like Salihu Takai or Hafizu Abubakar to win election, he needs power and he knows that he is the power. While people may think that it will be between Ganduje and Abba Yusuf, but in reality it will be between Kwankwaso and Buhari in Kano.

The success of the election can hardly be on the side of Ganduje since the presidential and the gubernatorial elections will not be held on the same day. Many Buharists will only vote for the Buhari, but many Kwankwasites see Ganduje as their biggest enemy and will put more pressure in seeing him out of Kano government house. Kwankwasiyya members don't care who the next governor will be. They only care in seeing the downfall of Ganduje.

However, in Sociology, predicting future is almost impossible. Human beings are not like machines or other unconscious beings that can be tested in laboratories under microscopes. This means analysing their present is less complex as predicting their future. If things go the way they are going now, Abba Yusuf will emerge winner of the 2019 Kano gubernatorial election.